Why Starmer’s deal with Germany could help PM’s plan to undo hard Brexit

Striking agreements with Berlin is part of ‘Operation Reset’ strategy to lay groundwork for forging deeper ties with EU

Sir Keir Starmer needs Olaf Scholz of Germany to carry out his plan to undo the Tories’ hard Brexit.
Striking deals with Germany after his visit to Berlin is part of the Prime Minister’s “Operation Reset” strategy to lay the groundwork for the next generation of Brexit talks.
He needs to build political momentum, trust and goodwill with EU capitals before he can renegotiate the “botched” Brexit trade agreement and forge deeper ties with the EU.
“We must turn a corner on Brexit,” Sir Keir said, as Labour insisted there was no plot to rejoin the EU or its single market.
UK-EU relations have improved, helped by the Windsor Agreement on Northern Ireland and the need for a united Western front against Russian aggression.
But the EU is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and the cost of living crisis, limiting its bandwidth.
Sir Keir’s challenge is that the European Commission, which spearheads EU trade talks, is happy with a deal it believes is very much in its favour.
He needs influential EU leaders arguing Britain’s case to convince Ursula von der Leyen’s commission, and the 27 member states, to endure yet more Brexit talks.
After the years of negotiations, the rows over fishing rights and vaccines, and the threats of a trade war over the Irish Sea border, the EU wanted Brexit done every bit as much as the British.
Deepening relations with Berlin with a new deal on defence and trade will win Sir Keir an important ally and send a signal to the rest of Europe. 
It helps that Ursula von der Leyen, the commission president, is German, and Berlin is the EU’s largest economy.
But the clock is ticking on Mr Scholz’s time as chancellor. He is under fire over migration and a massive black hole in its budget.
His centre-Left SPD faces defeat to the centre-Right CDU in federal elections next year, and to the far-Right Alternative for Germany in regional elections in Thuringia this weekend.
Sir Keir may be armed with a whopping majority, but he is relying on a European leader who is nearing his sell-by date.
The federal elections are not until September 2025, which does give Mr Scholz some time to make Britain’s case before the May 2026 review date for the UK-EU trade deal.
Bilateral deals with Berlin will not be enough on their own to move the dial in Brussels, which will drive a hard bargain with Britain regardless.
The commission, to Labour’s initial shock and annoyance, insists it sees the review as a chance for some minor tweaks to the Brexit trade deal – and nothing more.
Sir Keir says he won’t agree to a “free movement lite” deal on youth mobility or a return to Erasmus, which Brussels has offered.
UK universities were hugely popular destinations for the Erasmus student exchange programme but are now too expensive, with EU citizens facing overseas fees.
Can Labour really expect to get better deals for British touring bands and city workers and not have to give up anything on youth mobility?
The history of Brexit shows that both sides draw out maximalist red lines before pinking them in the course of the negotiations. Britain, in particular, has form for caving to the EU at the very last minute.
The commission remains convinced that its 450 million-strong single market gives it irresistible negotiating leverage with the UK.
It is also fiercely jealous of its territory. It made its demand for a youth mobility deal solely because Britain began bilateral talks with individual member states on improving it.
During the Brexit negotiations, Brussels warned London against attempting to divide and conquer the EU by lobbying its capitals.
Sir Keir now faces a delicate balancing act to avoid being accused of going over Brussels’ head to Europe’s capitals as he tries to lay the foundations of the new EU relationship.